Pentru că dezamorsează bomba cu ceas a sistemului public de pensii, promisiuni electorale urmate de împrumuturi, urmate de alte promisiuni electorale urmate de alte împrumuturi mai mult sau mai puțin reușite, în condițiile în care emigrația este extrem de mare, rata de suport reală = numărul de angajati extrabugetari / numărul de pensionari este în scădere puternică, rata de fertilitate este în scădere, iar speranța de viață este în creștere.
Citând wikipedia:
The pensions crisis or pensions timebomb is the predicted difficulty in paying for corporate or government employment retirement pensions in various countries, due to a difference between pension obligations and the resources set aside to fund them. The basic difficulty of the pension problem is that institutions must be sustained over far longer than the political planning horizon.[1] Shifting demographics are causing a lower ratio of workers per retiree; contributing factors include retirees living longer (increasing the relative number of retirees), and lower birth rates (decreasing the relative number of workers, especially relative to the Post-WW2 Baby Boom). An international comparison of pension institution by countries is important to solve the pension crisis problem.[2] There is significant debate regarding the magnitude and importance of the problem, as well as the solutions.[3]
Reformele avute în vedere de alte state care se confruntă cu aceeași problemă sunt destul de simple, predictibile și ineficiente: creșterea vârstei de pensionare cu abandonarea unei mase largi de cetățeni într-un șomaj nerecunoscut și fără protecție socială, scăderea valorii efective a pensiei prin inflație sau creșteri de prețuri, creșterea contribuțiilor individuale și a taxelor în general, destabilizând grav mecanismele macroeconomice.
Reform ideas can be divided into three primary categories:
- Addressing the worker-retiree ratio, by raising the retirement age, employment policy and immigration policy
- Reducing obligations by shifting from defined benefit to defined contribution pension types and reducing future payment amounts (by, for example, adjusting the formula that determines the level of benefits)
- Increasing resources to fund pensions by increasing contribution rates and raising taxes.
In 1950, there were 7.2 people aged 20–64 for every person of 65 or over in the OECD countries. By 1980, the support ratio dropped to 5.1 and by 2010 it was 4.1. It is projected to reach just 2.1 by 2050. The average ratio for the EU was 3.5 in 2010 and is projected to reach 1.8 by 2050.[8] Examples of support ratios for selected countries and regions in 1970, 2010, and projected for 2050 using the medium variant:[9]
| Country or Region | 1970 | 2010 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 |
| Japan | 8.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| United Kingdom | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| Germany | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| France | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| World | 8.9 | 7.4 | 3.5 |
| Africa | 13.6 | 13.2 | 8.8 |
| Asia | 12.0 | 8.6 | 3.3 |
| Europe | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.9 |
| Latin America & Caribbean | 10.8 | 8.3 | 3.0 |
| Northern America | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 |
| Oceania | 7.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 |
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